Chicago Bulls Must Trust Bench Unit to Avoid Burning out Starters

 Chicago  No Responses »
Nov 292012
 

If basketball gods exist, they scripted Chicago Bulls‘ last two games. What other explanation could there be for such a perfect contrast, artistically framed through three quarters of dominance, concluded by sharply different endings?

One ending entailed exhausted starters falling to an energetic bench. The other, an energetic bench dominating the opponent’s starters. 

In some ways the only difference is nothing more than win and a loss. That difference could signal a paradigm shift from Tom Thibodeau in how he plays his team, both now and forever. That is, if he was paying attention to what the hard-court deities were teaching. 

In the first game the Chicago Bulls started off playing splendidly, blowing out the Central Division-leading Milwaukee Bucks. They were executing on offense well, moving the ball, getting to the rim and hitting their shots. 

Defensively they were rotating. They were sealing off the perimeter and keeping the Bucks from hitting threes. 

The Bulls built a massive, 76-51 lead and Bulls fans were starting to count this one in the win bank. One Bulls writer for Bleacher Report (cough cough) tweeted this in the third quarter,

 

Best the Bulls have looked all season. Sure, it’s against Milwaukee, but just from the aspect of what they’re doing, they look great.

— Kelly Scaletta (@KellyScaletta) November 27, 2012

Almost immediately, things started to change. The Bucks put in their reserves. The Bulls didn’t. The Bucks had energy, the Bulls didn’t. 

In just over two and a half minutes, Chicago’s lead was down to 15. 

The quarter changed, and during the break no new Bulls came in. The Bucks bench started to wear down eventually, but the Bulls starters were even more worn down. 

Gradually the lead shrank away entirely, until Milwaukee took the lead at the 7:06 mark. In fewer than eight minutes the Bulls lost a 27-point lead and were outscored by 28 points. The Bulls fell in heartbreaking fashion by a single point, 93-92. 

In their very next game, the Bulls again amassed a large lead through three quarters. Only this time, as time wound down in the third quarter, Thibodeau had mercy on his starters and used his bench. 

The clouds parted. A bright shaft of sunlight broke through, illuminating the United Center. Angels sang. Fans fell on the ground and wept. 

An epiphany was had. 

The bench began to pull away. Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson and Nate Robinson all started making contributions. Robinson hit a layup. Then he hit a jump shot. Gibson hit a pair of free throws. Butler got to the line and made both shots. 

Midway through the fourth quarter, with a lineup composed entirely of the Bulls bench on the floor, the Bulls opened up the lead to 25, with the score 91-66. 

The bench stayed in until a final score was 101-7 was reached. The Bulls starters scored 51, the bench 50, making for a beautiful symmetry in the one game. The vivid contrast of the previous game seemed to prove that there must be some higher powers at work.

In one game the bench was left alone, scored 10 points and the Bulls lost. In the next, the bench scores one point shy of the starters and the Bulls win going away.  

It’s as though the moral taught was that the bench is almost, but not quite, as crucial as the starters. 

The Bulls had three bench players, Jimmy Butler, Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli hit double-digits in scoring. Butler had a career-high 13 points on nine-of-10 from the stripe. 

The bench was validated and that had a side effect. 

Because of the bench’s performance, a corresponding number was perhaps the most important of all—35. That’s the number of minutes both Joakim Noah and Luol Deng played. Combined, that’s 9.3 minutes fewer than the two have been playing so far this season. 

Deng and Noah are first and fifth in minutes per game in the NBA. Logging those kinds of minutes doesn’t just drain a player over a game, it drains him over the season. A game saved by leaving the stars in now can mean two games lost due to exhaustion in the playoffs. 

The sudden boost in confidence in the bench, and it’s corresponding effect on the reduction in minutes from the team’s two most important players not named Derrick Rose, is crucial. 

The reality is that while the Bulls are 7-7, they are better than a .500 team, even without Rose. Games were lost that could have been won if the bench had more time playing together. They will improve over time, but only if they can play. 

Their bench has been overhauled with the exceptions of Gibson and Butler. As they’ve played together they’ve grown together and that’s what they need in order to continue to improve. 

There’s no substitute for game-time playing. Winning is important, but sometimes winning now means losing later.

The one flaw that Thibodeau has is that sometimes he struggles to see the forest through the trees. He loses sight of the season through the individual games. It’s important not to look ahead in some aspects because you don’t want to look past an opponent. However one shouldn’t practice that to the point of becoming myopic. 

Has the little froggy climbed out of the well?

After the game Thibodeau made a proclamation that indicated he might have heard what the hoops divinity was trying to show him. 

“The bench was great,” Thibodeau said. “The starters got us out to a good start. We needed everybody.”

We need everybody. Sweet words to the ears.  Let’s hope he remembers that. 

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Why Taj Gibson’s Extension Makes Amnestying Carlos Boozer a No-Brainer

 Chicago  No Responses »
Nov 012012
 

The Chicago Bulls thought long and hard before agreeing (via the Associated Press) to a four-year, $38 million contract extension with Taj Gibson. Their inevitable decision to eventually amnesty Carlos Boozer won’t be nearly as difficult.

When Gibson signed his extension with the Bulls just before the October 31 deadline, he secured his future by writing his name on the dotted line.

At the same time, he put the writing on the wall for Carlos Boozer.

Boozer, long the target of Bulls fans’ ire, isn’t a bad player by any stretch. In fact, he’s been an effective scorer and rebounder for a decade. But his career averages of 17 points and 9.9 rebounds aren’t the problem.

It’s about the money.

To get the clearest picture of exactly why the Bulls must inevitably choose Gibson over Boozer, we need to look at a couple of distinct areas.

 

On-Court Impact

 Offensively, Carlos Boozer should be an exceptionally efficient scorer. He has shot better than 50 percent from the field in nine out of his 10 previous NBA seasons, and last year, he ranked among the NBA elite from his pet three-to-nine-foot distance with a 53 percent field-goal percentage.

But Boozer’s declining athleticism and apparent distaste for contact have resulted in a steadily sinking rate of free-throw attempts that bottomed out last year, when he took just 2.1 foul shots per game.

Looking forward, Boozer’s high volume of tough shots in the lane and his inability to get to the line point to a precipitous drop in his overall offensive efficiency.

In contrast, Taj Gibson’s offensive game isn’t nearly as polished as Boozer’s is. But he’s murder in transition and the complete opposite of Boozer when it comes to his feelings on drawing contact.

So, unlike Boozer, Gibson’s not much of a shooter, but he drew fouls at a much higher rate. That makes him a viable offensive player with the potential to get better.

But it’s on the defensive end where Gibson really distinguishes himself from Boozer.

Gibson is an elite defender. There’s no other way to say it. According to Synergy (subscription required), he was among the NBA’s top 15 percent in terms of overall defensive efficiency. In isolation situations, he was in the top 10.

Stats aside, Gibson is a ferocious help defender who is also agile enough to stay in front of guards when switching on a pick-and-roll. He competes relentlessly on the boards and has been an extremely effective shot-blocker. Despite averaging just 23.2 minutes per game in his career, he’s swatted away an average of at least one shot per game.

Also, his weakside blocks are consistently awesome (note that it’s Boozer who Evan Turner blows by in the highlight).

Unlike Gibson, Boozer is a decidedly below-average defensive player, who Synergy ranks in the NBA’s bottom third.

All of those numbers could be criticized as existing in a vacuum, though. Unfortunately for Boozer, the context-dependent statistics value Gibson even more highly.

Per 100 possessions, Gibson made the Bulls an astounding 10.5 points better on defense when he was on the floor. Boozer, on the other hand, made the Bulls 8.6 points worse.

That’s a mind-blowing difference, and it shows just how valuable Gibson is to the defense-first Bulls.

 

The Pocketbook Hit

Speaking of value, Boozer has virtually none from a financial standpoint.

He’s owed $15 million this year and next, but then his salary grows to $17 million in 2014-15. That’s a huge amount of money for a guy whose backup—Gibson—is arguably a better overall player.

Now that Gibson has signed his extension, he’ll cost the Bulls $2 million this season and a reasonable average salary of $9.5 million for the next four years. In other words, the Bulls are committed to paying Boozer—who turns 31 this month—about $10 million more in the next three seasons than they’ll pay Gibson—who’s 27—for the next five.

Keeping both players would mean the Bulls were paying at least $25 million for two players who play the same position. It doesn’t take a financial analyst to realize that the Bulls would be crazy to do that.

From a broader perspective, the Bulls already have the NBA’s sixth-highest payroll. By extending Gibson, Chicago has now committed about $75 million in total salary next season (if it exercises its team option on Richard Hamilton), which will put it into the luxury tax. That means its hands will be tied for the foreseeable future, which will keep the Bulls out of any meaningful free-agent pursuits.

Unless the Bulls save themselves about $47 million by amnestying Carlos Boozer.

 

The Only Conclusion

 When you compare Gibson and Boozer’s on-court worth, it’s hard to say one is vastly superior to the other right now. But even the staunchest Boozer defenders—if those even exist—have to concede that Gibson is probably a little more valuable this year, and definitely more valuable as the players age over the next few seasons.

And the financial components weigh even more heavily in favor of Gibson.

For the future of the Chicago Bulls, there’s only one conclusion: They’ve got to amnesty Carlos Boozer.

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Taj Gibson and Chicago Bulls Reportedly Agree to Contract Extension

 Chicago  No Responses »
Nov 012012
 

Taj Gibson‘s contract situation appears to be settled, putting aside any doubts that the Chicago Bulls‘ power forward would bolt in the near future.

Chicago Tribune reporter K.C. Johnson broke the news:

Taj changed his mind. Agreed to extension.

— K.C Johnson (@KCJHoop) November 1, 2012

Johnson also provided a quote from Gibson regarding the extension:

Taj: “I looked at the numbers and that’s a lot of money, especially the security.”

— K.C Johnson (@KCJHoop) November 1, 2012

Gibson, according to Johnson, is set to make $38 million over the next four years. That’s solid security for both Gibson and the Bulls franchise when you consider the always-shaky future of starting power forward Carlos Boozer.

No one will mistake Gibson for a superstar talent, but this was a no-brainer for Chicago. With Derrick Rose out of the lineup, this team doesn’t have a big-time talent to turn to. That leaves Tom Thibodeau’s squad to completely rely on defense to win games, and that’s something Gibson is very good at.

Now in his fourth season with the Bulls, Gibson is averaging 7.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks for his career. He’s not an incredibly gifted offensive player, but his grit and athleticism make up for it when he needs it to. On the defensive end, he’s an above-average shot-blocker, making up for Boozer’s passive defense at times.

Chicago’s “bench mob” mentality hinges on guys like this. In Chicago’s regular-season opener on Wednesday night, Gibson played 19 minutes, scoring five points and swatting away four shots. Little things like that help Chicago earn wins, and it did on Wednesday.

Without Rose, for the time being, the Bulls are in a tough spot. Winning games isn’t going to come easy. Blue-collar players will be needed, and Gibson will always provide that much.

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Breaking Down Why Chicago Bulls Can’t Afford to Lose Taj Gibson

 Chicago  No Responses »
Oct 302012
 

The contract standstill between the Chicago Bulls and Taj Gibson continues, and precious time continues to tick away for the would-be restricted free agent. They have until Wednesday at midnight to secure an extension, and the Bulls simply cannot afford to lose him.

Gibson embodies all of what the Bulls and coach Tom Thibodeau stand for. He’s got a non-stop motor, which he uses to play suffocating defense, while doing a great job on the glass. He’s not concerned with his offense and is happy to get the bulk of his points at the rim.

If the Bulls continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA, it’s going to be in large part because of the energy and hustle that Gibson provides off the bench. His game means coach Thibodeau doesn’t have to worry about resting the starters. He doesn’t feel pressured to get them back in the game because the bench allowed another big run.

One important thing to consider is that if the Bulls don’t extend Gibson by the deadline, they’ll still be in good position to match any offers during the summer of 2013. As Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com mentioned, because Gibson has Bird rights, teams won’t be allowed to enter the “poison pill” provision, which cost the Bulls Omer Asik during the 2012 offseason. 

Ken Berger of CBS sports noted that the Bulls and Gibson aren’t just sitting on their laurels at this point.

Talks ongoing between the Bulls and Taj Gibson, and they’re expected to push up against tomorrow’s 5 p.m. ET deadline, sources say.

— Ken Berger (@KBergCBS) October 30, 2012

It’s rather remarkable that Gibson had such a large influence on the defense, considering he played just 20.4 minutes per game. According to 82games.com, the Bulls gave up 92.5 points per 100 possessions when Gibson was on the court. When he was off the court, it ballooned to 103.1 points. That’s an enormous difference and is a big reason why they can’t afford to lose him.

Gibson’s minutes have gone down in each of his three NBA seasons, but he hasn’t let it affect him. He’s actually taken full advantage of it and has become a more efficient player. His 16.9 PER in 2011-12 was a career best.

His offensive rating has gone up every year, while his defensive rating has come down every year. His rating of 96.4 ranked seventh in the NBA in 2011-12; his rating of 97.7 ranked fifth in 2010-11.

Finally, he isn’t just a regular season performer. He ratings show improvement in each of his playoff appearances. The 2011-12 playoffs saw him raise his efficiency to 19.8, his offensive rating jumped to 112 and his defensive rating came in at a very impressive 93.

The bottom line is, if the Bulls want to continue being a dominant defensive team, management must find a way to re-sign Gibson now. It would send a positive message to the team that the front office is committed to the players, and it sends a specific message to Gibson that the team values him and wants him there at all costs.

 

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Mapping out a Successful Strategy for the Chicago Bulls and Taj Gibson

 Chicago  No Responses »
Oct 192012
 

Chicago Bulls power forward Taj Gibson has been one of the team’s most important players the past few seasons, leading a heralded “Bench Mob” unit that was widely considered one of the best benches in the NBA.

With most of that unit gone thanks to an offseason dismantling, Gibson will be counted on more than ever to anchor a new bench group that features names such as Marco Belinelli, Nate Robinson and Nazr Mohammed. 

Gibson is easily one of the league’s most unheralded players and a guy whose value goes way beyond the box score. When you look at Gibson’s 2011-12 averages of 7.7 points and 5.3 rebounds in 20.4 minutes per game, it’s easy to just shrug your shoulders.

But take a deeper look at some of the advanced numbers from NBA.com, and you can see why the Bulls are trying their best to lock up Gibson, who is slated to become a restricted free agent next summer. 

The on court vs. off court numbers pretty much say it all. With Gibson on the court last season, the Bulls had a ridiculous defensive rating of 88.6 (88.6 points allowed per 100 possessions). With him on the bench, the defensive rating was up near 100. Overall, the Bulls were nearly 10 points better per 100 possessions with Gibson on the court as opposed to on the bench. 

It’s these type of numbers that have many fans clamoring for Gibson to start over the much-maligned Carlos Boozer. While Boozer has not been as bad as many make him out to be, there’s no hiding the fact that Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau has often gone with Gibson down the stretch of games the past few years.

Gibson may not be the offensive threat that Boozer is, but his elite ability to defend more than makes up for that. And we know how much Thibs loves his defense.

That being said, barring a Boozer injury or complete meltdown, do not expect Gibson to crack the starting lineup any time soon. As long as Boozer and his bloated contract are on the roster, he will be the starting power forward, as there is worry that he would lose his focus if forced to come off the bench.

Gibson may get that starting opportunity with the Bulls if he gets re-signed and Boozer gets the boot via the amnesty clause, but that won’t happen for another year or two.

However, just because Gibson probably won’t start this year does not mean he won’t see an increase in minutes. With former “Bench Mob” mate Omer Asik gone to Houston and the 35-year-old Nazr Mohammed as the only true backup center behind Joakim Noah, there’s a good chance Gibson sees some extended time at the 5 this season.

Making this even more likely is the “small-ball revolution” that has swept across the NBA in the past couple of years. If opponents go small, the versatile Gibson is a much better option at the 5 than the more slow-footed Mohammed. 

To go along with his elite defense, the Bulls would certainly like to see some strides from Gibson on the offensive end. Gibson told ESPNChicago.com at the beginning of training camp that he focused a lot of work this offseason on his jump shot. If he can get that jumper to go down consistently, he will become that much more valuable to the Bulls going forward. 

So just what, exactly, is Gibson worth to the Bulls as they look to the future? 

The Bulls and Gibson currently have until Oct. 31 to reach an agreement on a long-term contract extension. If no deal is reached, Gibson will become a restricted free agent next summer.

Considering how good Gibson is defensively and how much money Asik got in restricted free agency this summer ($25.1 million over three years), it’s not hard to fathom Gibson getting an offer sheet that reaches double-digit millions per season. While the Bulls love what Gibson brings to the table, that could be too rich for their blood, especially considering Euro sensation Nikola Mirotic is waiting in the wings a couple of years down the road. 

To avoid a dilemma like they faced with Asik, it would behoove the Bulls to do whatever they can to lock up Gibson now. There’s certainly some risk involved, as Gibson has never been a full-time starter, although he performed well as a spot starter during his rookie season.

But that caveat aside, there’s little reason the Bulls should not feel comfortable offering Gibson an extension worth around $7-8 million per season. I would possibly even consider going a tad higher if need be. If they can get him for less, well, that would be a complete steal. 

If the Bulls are smart, Taj Gibson will be in Chicago for a very long time. ESPN’s Marc Stein reported on Wednesday that a deal will “probably” get done by the deadline, so that’s a good sign. Hopefully we will get to see plenty more Gibson moments in Chicago, like the one in the video above. 

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