Is Jason Terry or Courtney Lee a Better Fit with Boston Celtics Starters?

 Boston  No Responses »
Dec 072012
 

More so than at any point in the last five years, this season the Boston Celtics have struggled to find a reliable rotation—new pieces have entered the organization, and roles have yet to be figured out. If you’re searching for ways to cast blame on the Celtics’ overall dysfunction, look no further than their permeable starting lineup.

What was once set in stone has suddenly turned into a weekly guessing game, with any finished product now miles from being realized.  

Before diving in to discuss whether Jason Terry or Courtney Lee is the better fit to be on the court for the opening tip, let it be said that this question will soon be rendered a moot point.

Based on his incredible impact last season beside Rajon Rondo, Brandon Bass, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, third-year guard Avery Bradley will be inserted into the starting lineup once he’s cleared to return from two offseason shoulder surgeries.

But in the meantime, the Terry or Lee question is an interesting one. Let’s first summarize how each player has individually performed in a Celtics uniform before taking a look at how they’ve played with the starters, and, more importantly, how the starters have played with them.

 

Courtney Lee

Excluding Andrew Bynum from the conversation, a solid argument can be made that Courtney Lee has been the most disappointing offseason acquisition in the NBA.

After scoring 11 points on 5-of-6 shooting in the season opener against Miami, Lee’s next four scoring totals by game went like this: seven, two, four and six.

He was playing hesitant, unsure basketball while the team struggled to a 2-3 record. After scoring six points against the Sixers, Lee was replaced in the starting lineup by Terry for Boston’s next game against Milwaukee. He failed to score.

Lee was the new piece, the sore thumb. It may not have been fair, but at the time, Doc Rivers’ decision to place him on the bench was best for the team.

A lot goes into wins and losses apart from who starts the basketball game, and according to a slew of statistics, when Lee is on the floor beside Rondo, Bass, Pierce and Garnett, the Celtics are very, very good.

They’ve shared the court for just 35 minutes, but their per-48 numbers are above the team’s average in several basic yet significant categories, such as rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.

Also, they’re shooting the lights out.

The unit’s true shooting percentage is 65.7 percent (as a team, Boston’s is 55.4 percent), they score 1.22 points per possession while giving 0.991 and grab a quarter of all the offensive rebounds available (still below league average, but seven percentage points higher than what the Celtics are doing as a team).

On both offense and defense, second-chance points, points off turnover, points in the paint and fast-break points are all higher (or lower) than the team’s average. Overall they haven’t played much together, but looking at the numbers it’s impossible to say Lee doesn’t  fit. 

 

Jason Terry

Right now Terry is in the starting lineup, and he should be. He’s shooting 39.7 percent on three-pointers (his best since 2007), boasting a true shooting percentage of 63.3 percent (a career best) and is getting to the line more than he did last season on about three fewer minutes of action per game.

He was inserted into the starting lineup in Milwaukee on November 10, and it’s no coincidence that the win Boston came away with that night stands as one of the team’s two or three most important of the season. The Celtics needed Terry, and he responded.

But this wasn’t how it was supposed to be, and there’s more than a good chance this won’t be how it ends. Terry is an above-average offensive player, and utilizing a scoring ability such as his off the bench is a weapon most teams wish they had.

Doc Rivers wants to use Terry with his second unit. But he also wants wins, and thanks to his overall consistency, Terry is the safer bet.

The most used five-man unit the Celtics have deployed this season is Rondo, Bass, Pierce, Terry and Garnett. They’re scoring 1.05 points per possession (a top-10 offense on par with the San Antonio Spurs) while giving up .093 points per possession (a defense that would be best in the league by a staggering three points per 100 possessions).

 

Who Should Be In The Starting Lineup Moving Forward?

Either option, honestly, is solid. Both can shoot and both can create off the dribble. So far Terry has played beside the other starters for more than 100 more than Lee.

A discrepancy this large can’t be ignored, but when you factor in defensive intensity with his glowing numbers running amongst the starters, Lee should be given another shot in the starting lineup. 

The clip below encapsulates the type of impact Lee can have to kick off a basketball game. He’s fast, has quick hands and feet (making him a nightmare for opposing players driving at him in isolation) and is more than capable of knocking down a jump shot or finishing at the rim.    

Looking at the big picture, who starts at shooting guard until Avery Bradley gets healthy is not the difference between Boston winning the championship or falling in the first round. But if they want to re-establish themselves as a defense-first organization while remaining a fast-paced offense capable of matching up well against nearly every team in the league, Courtney Lee should not be coming off the bench.

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5 Reasons the Boston Celtics Won’t Be Winning an NBA Title in 2012-2013

 Boston  No Responses »
Dec 022012
 

It came down to one game.

One game to decide another NBA Finals appearance for Doc Rivers and his core group of veteran stars. And hell, if they found a way to overcome all of the adversity, the injuries, the naysayers to that point, who’s to say that the Leprechauns and four-leaf clovers that have adorned this franchise with such good graces for over half a century couldn’t squeeze out one more minor miracle against the Thunder?

Well, as we know now, that one game, in the conference finals against the Heat, did not go Boston’s way.

And this year, it won’t even be that close.

Yes, it will have to be a new era of Celtics stars sometime in the future to make a run at its 18th title. The following slides are reasons why you’ll have to settle for St. Patty’s Day to see a parade in Boston next year…

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How Jeff Green Can Meet Expectations with Boston Celtics

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 282012
 

Controversial contract aside, Jeff Green might be the most polarizing player in the entire NBA. Now getting his feet wet in a sixth NBA season, Green has the body, athleticism, and technical skill to be a very effective contributor on a championship-caliber team. But idealized ability and tangible production are two very different things, and so far Green’s tenure with the Boston Celtics can best be described as an inefficient, contradicting frustration. 

If you’re using advanced statistics to judge him, pretty much everything about his basketball-related influence has been negative. The Boston Celtics score almost three fewer points per 100 possessions when Green is on the court, and give up an astounding seven more points per 100 possessions on the defensive end. Obviously not good news. 

Green’s PER is currently glued to single digit terrain (8.6), and his true shooting percentage (48.0 percent) is five percentage points lower than the league average for forwards who play at least 20 minutes per game. 

Here are two shot charts to help show how poor he’s performing in two separate situations. The first is when the game’s overall scoring margin sits between one and five points. 

And the second shows how he’s shooting in the fourth quarter. 

Green entered the league six years ago as a facilitator, but the Celtics are asking him to run as far as possible from that reputation. He’s averaging 0.7 assists per game, which shouldn’t be viewed as a good thing no matter what the Celtics offensive game plan reads. Right now his role resembles more what Doc Rivers likely had planned for Jason Terry: an immediate scorer off the bench who could create his own shot off the dribble. 

Green’s turnover percentage is 14.5, the highest since his rookie season, and a major reason why has been his lack of consistent aggression. Several times this season he’s received the ball in the post with a subpar defender on his hip. With his four teammates cleared out to give space, Green has all the room, and time, to make his move, but for whatever reason, he doesn‘t. 

Right now he’s averaging a 2.4 shots at the rim per game, and making 52.9 percent of them (both career lows). If he’s to increase his positive impact on the Celtics offense, he’ll need to boost these numbers significantly—he’s flashed moments of improvement, but has yet to string together a series of games that would indicate a “refined” player.

That just about sums up all the negativity surrounding Jeff Green this season, but there’s a reason Danny Ainge (one of the league’s smartest general managers) gave him a long-term contract normally reserved for second-tier stars. It sounds strange, because almost every other relevant metric we have indicates less Green equals a more efficient basketball team, but the ball in his hands can still be viewed as a good thing. 

The more Green shoots the ball, the better off the Celtics are—which is so weird because he’s barely hitting 40 percent of his shots (30 percent on the road and 26.3 percent from behind the three-point line!).

The Celtics are 4-1 in games when he scores in double figures, and 4-5 when he doesn’t. More importantly, Green has averaged 2.3 more shots and 1.6 more free-throw attempts in wins than in losses. His usage rate is 23.7 percent in wins and 17.1 percent in losses. 

Despite all this data (lifted solely from this season: a small sample size) that says Green isn’t a good NBA player, contextually he’s in a perfect position to fill an integral role with a really good basketball team. He’s important to them because he’s capable of doing things not a lot of Celtics can do, especially on the offensive end, where he ranks third on the team behind Rajon Rondo and Leandro Barbosa, with 39 percent of his made field goals coming unassisted.

Green is talented enough to take care of himself, and that’s important for a guy asked to carry Boston’s second unit.

An argument could be made that advanced statistics aren’t able to tell the whole story of how important Green’s presence has been this year. When he’s aggressive on offense—especially in small ball lineups that utilize his versatility—opponents are forced to play units they don’t normally deploy, and the impact is more than noticeable.

For example, when Green is playing power forward beside Paul Pierce, the Celtics are scoring 108.2 points per 100 possessions, a number good for the fourth-most efficient basketball team in the league.

And he may be missing an alarming number of shots at the rim, but that hasn’t stopped him from picking spots to be aggressive towards the basket. Chris Wilcox and Pierce are the only Celtics scoring a higher percentage of their points from the free-throw line (Green’s at 23 percent).

He was crucial in the team’s biggest win of the season on November 23rd against Oklahoma City, but two days later Green was a ghost, as the Celtics needed an extra five minutes to defeat a pitiful Orlando Magic team in Florida.

Sometimes he drives, sometimes he hesitates. Sometimes he attacks, sometimes he doesn‘t want the ball. Not much about Green is making sense right now. He possesses all the tools necessary to dominate opposing bench units, but so far he’s yet to figure out how to use them. Until then, the word “polarizing” might be too forgiving. 

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How the Boston Celtics Are Trying to Mask Paul Pierce’s Old Age

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 222012
 

An NBA player’s battle against Father Time is unfair; it isn’t a question of if a player will lose, but when. The greats are able to hang on longer than most, with idiosyncrasies, adjustments and an insane work ethic, but each year the league is infused with more youth, more talent and more speed.

It’s a natural process designed to keep the NBA fresh and exciting by replacing older veterans who aren’t capable of performing at the level we’ve grown accustomed to watching over the years.

This season Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade are two notable players creeping towards a cliff. Both are first ballot Hall of Famers, and so both have earned a bit more time before harsh criticism comes into play. But it’s clear to those watching that right now they aren’t as dominant as they used to be.

Unlike Wade and Ginobili, Paul Pierce’s per game production is not down, but the way he’s going about his business is changing. Some of it’s concerning, but not all.

Doc Rivers is trying to make Pierce’s life easier, but that shouldn’t be confused with “Pierce isn’t the same player.” His numbers so far this season are nearly identical to those from last year and the year before that. There’s no solid reason to think they’ll fall off if it hasn’t happened already; he’s an above average shooter off the dribble and an elite spot-up threat from behind the three-point line.

According to Synergy, 12.6 percent of Pierce’s plays are in isolation, where 42.4 percent are coming either off screens (21.9 percent) or in transition (20.5 percent)—two methods of making his scoring duties easier.

Last year, 16.3 percent of Pierce’s action came in isolation, where a combined 29.9 percent was off screens (15.7 percent) and transition (14.2 percent).

The Celtics aren’t merely relying on pin-down screens and advantageous transition baskets to get Pierce involved. Doc Rivers is doing a great job of placing him in more regular positions to succeed, isolating him against smaller or slower players. Pierce has obliged by succeeding in these situations by either attacking the basket, bullying his man towards the post or raising up for a barely contested jumper.

No alarms should be going off to indicate Pierce is nearing the end, but that isn’t to say there haven’t been more than a few occasions this season that have made you wonder if he’d do the same thing three or four years ago.

This screen shot was taken earlier this season on Boston’s third offensive possession in a game against the Jazz. Pierce receives a pick from Garnett, catches the ball just above the left elbow, rises up and…passes back to Garnett. As you can see he has more than enough space to get the shot up, but for whatever reason he opted not to.

Here we find the Celtics setting two screens to give Pierce some room from his man, Luol Deng, quite possibly basketball’s best perimeter defender. In years past, Pierce vs. Deng has usually been a show. Great individual offense against great individual defense.

What we get here is disappointing. With plenty of time on the shot clock, as Pierce receives the ball from Rondo just above the three-point line on the left wing, every other green jersey on the court clears out to the right side. This is isolation basketball at its highest form.

Instead, we’re cheated. Without even giving a simple jab step, Pierce settles for a quick three—which he misses—bailing Deng out. This is a little unsettling.

But the increase of pin-down screens to get Pierce open shouldn’t be. They come within the flow of Boston’s offense and are helping Pierce get a quick step on his defender, into the lane or for a wide open shot.

Pierce may be old, but he’s still playing at an All-Star level. At 35 years old, he simply can’t get into the lane or by his man as easily as he used to. For the rest of his career, expect Pierce to rely on his teammates just a bit more than he’d like (pin-down screens, away screens, give-and-gos, etc.). With a brilliant coach like Doc Rivers by his side, there’s no telling when Father Time will finally win the fight, but for the time being, Paul Pierce is still hanging on. 

 

All stats in this article are as of Wednesday, November 21

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Boston Celtics: How Jason Terry Can Be Ray Allen 2.0

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 212012
 

When Boston Celtics head coach Doc Rivers first recruited Jason Terry to join his team, the sales pitch was short and simple: We need you.

At the time, Boston’s backcourt depth was a gigantic question mark, and acquiring at least one consistent offensive contributor for the bench was a No. 1 priority. A good-sized offer had (supposedly) been placed at Ray Allen’s feet—he’d yet to sign with the Heat—but Boston’s decision to go hard after Terry all but murdered the possibility of the three-point king extending his tenure.

The Celtics may have had an offer out to Allen, but Terry was clearly their guy. Why? Boston’s offense has been awful going on three years in a row. Part of the problem was an obvious lack of individual playmakers who could create off the dribble with the shot clock winding down. They needed freelance specialists who could pack a punch off the bench.

With Avery Bradley yet to have the experience/confidence needed to fill this role (not to mention the question mark surrounding his surgically repaired shoulders) the Celtics knew that in order to get past the Miami Heat, they’d need to acquire another scorer in the backcourt.

If Allen and Terry were placed in a Venn diagram, more characteristics would overlap in the middle than fall on the periphery. Both are dead-eye three-point shooters, both are in their mid-30s and both play the same position.

Boston needed someone who could put the ball on the floor, create mid-range opportunities for both himself and others, and swallow his ego by thriving off the bench.

At this stage in his career, Allen wasn’t the answer. His ability to produce was mostly a byproduct of four floor mates working hard to get him open, and according to Basketball Prospectus, his usage rate dropped below league average last season for the first time in his career.  In a nut shell, he was more a hindrance than a resolution.

Call it evolution or devolution, but in the latter stages of Allen’s tenure with Boston, he increasingly grew one-dimensional, defined by an ability to catch and shoot the ball, with 35.7 percent of his production coming off screens last season. Putting the ball on the floor was extremely rare. Instead, coming off screens was a huge part of his game, and a scoring solution that lingered a bit too long—given the alternative options supplied by an improving Rajon Rondo—for the Celtics. 

On the other hand, on paper, Jason Terry was a perfect fit. But basketball isn’t a sport that’s played on paper. Let’s take a look at how Boston is using Terry so far, and how it’s compared to what they used to do with Allen.

So far this season, 23.6 percent of Terry’s production has been off screens, where he’s averaging 0.96 points per possession (second best in the league).

Last season with the Mavericks, only 7.7 percent of Terry’s production was off screens. There are two possible conclusions to take away from this increase: Either the Celtics are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, or the more likely reason, they’ve decided having the ball in Rondo’s hands as much as possible gives them the best chance to win.

Terry ran the pick-and-roll a ton in Dallas. He was really good at it, but that was more a product of contextual necessity than anything else. A 26-year-old Rajon Rondo is by far the best point guard he’s ever played with, and it might be better in this situation if Terry sacrifices some of his own strengths to best fit in with Boston’s current dynamic.

Here’s Ray Allen running the play that made him so successful in Boston. He begins in a crowd, then forces his man to shoot the gap on Kevin Garnett‘s away screen. The result is a wide open three-pointer. 

And here’s the Celtics running basically the exact same thing with Terry on the other side of the court. The major difference here is that instead of a three from the wing, Terry’s shot is a 16-footer from the baseline. Still, it’s the same concept, right down to the defender helplessly trying to shoot the gap on a Garnett screen. 

Those two plays are great examples of how the Celtics are using Jason Terry in similar situations with how they used Ray Allen. However, while Allen owns the better shot, Terry has the ability to make the most out of spilt milk. 

What I mean by that is Doc Rivers probably feels a little more comfortable designing sets for Terry knowing that, if all hell breaks loose and the play’s shape falls apart, the Celtics can still get a decent look at the hoop. 

Here’s a play designed to have Terry curl off a pick and find a good look at the basket. The only problem is that after running through a gauntlet of well-placed screens, he finds himself face to face with Joakim Noah, one of the league’s most active, intimidating defenders.

If this were Allen, Noah’s size would take away the shot, and the ball would be reversed back to Rondo with six seconds left on the shot clock. The set would be thwarted, and the possession would be chalked up as an ugly waste. 

Because Terry is a superior ball-handler, he doesn’t panic, instead creating space with a step back jumper that fakes Noah out of his shoes. This play exemplifies why Terry is both a better fit in Boston and a more lethal offensive weapon. 

What everybody’s still waiting for, though, is an unstoppable pick-and-roll, a play Terry should be able to run flawlessly with either Garnett or Brandon Bass.

In the clip above, Terry actually uses a stagger screen to get all the way to the hoop. Would it surprise you if I said this was the only time all season he’s finished at the hoop in a pick-and-roll situation? Getting all the way to the rim on a regular basis would be asking too much, and at his age it isn’t really what Terry does anymore. But there should still be more action created off this set with the ball in his hands.

It’s the biggest difference between him and Ray Allen. Isn’t that why the Celtics signed Terry in the first place?

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TrueHoop TV: How we see Austin Rivers

 Rumors  No Responses »
Nov 202012
 

Amin Elhassan has a fascinating discussion of Austin Rivers’ game. A lot of people say things about Rivers related to his dad … as if being the son of Doc Rivers would make Austin better at things like defense, moving the ball or picking good shots. Elhassan has been watching the younger Rivers since high school and says that’s simply not how Austin has ever played.

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Why You Shouldn’t Be Fooled by the Boston Celtics’ Ugly Start

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 192012
 

After Sunday night’s loss to the Detroit Pistons, it’s safe to say that the Boston Celtics have gotten off to a rather underwhelming start (and why do the Pistons always seem to give them so much trouble?). The Celtics are sitting at 6-5, and although they have won six of their last nine games overall, it has been anything but pretty for the Celtics.

I already wrote an article on this subject earlier in the season, fresh after Boston beat the Washington Wizards two straight times to get to 2-2. Then, I mentioned how the C’s got off to a 5-9 start last year and were 15-17 as late as the All-Star break before turning it around. Celtics fans know the history. They know that the beginning of the season doesn’t really mean all that much to the team, so I am not going to spend any time on that this time around.

Instead, it’s important that we highlight specific reasons as to why you shouldn’t be fooled by Boston’s slow start this year. There are plenty of reasons to believe that the C’s are going to turn things around, so let’s just discuss a few of them.

1. New guys will learn their roles

It’s blatantly obvious that all of the new faces on the Celtics are having trouble adjusting. After all, only four Boston players currently on this squad were on the playoff roster in 2012. Other than that, this is a very different-looking team, so it’s no surprise that guys are still getting used to playing with one another.

Thus far, it seems pretty clear that this problem is very evident at the shooting guard position. Other than his 20-point outing in a win against the Toronto Raptors and a few clutch shots here and there, Jason Terry has looked a bit uncomfortable. Terry took only one shot in a win over the Utah Jazz, and for a guy who is known for letting the ball fly, that is incredibly unusual. Courtney Lee has seen his minutes fluctuate, and outside of a few moments of stellar play, he has been fairly non-existent (only twice has he scored in double-digits).

Then you have to take into consideration that Avery Bradley is still on his way back, and that will make things even dicier in terms of how Doc Rivers distributes minutes among his guards.

All of that being said, Terry is a seasoned veteran and should adapt soon enough. Lee may not have The Jet’s experience, but he is a talented player and is far better than what he has demonstrated thus far. Plus, he has at least been playing pretty good defense.

Once guys like these jell and get going, you’ll see Boston start to soar.

 

2. Brandon Bass will adjust

With Jared Sullinger now in tow plus Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox returning from heart surgery, Bass has gone from a key cog to essentially an afterthought.

Sullinger has gotten some starts, Green has gotten some minutes down low, and Wilcox is frequently paired with Kevin Garnett up front. That kind of leaves Bass out in the cold. That is meant almost literally, too. Bass is a player who relies heavily on his jump shot, and he has not been able to get into any kind of rhythm. As a result, he has not been shooting the ball all that well.

It may take some time, as Bass was certainly one of the C’s primary players last season, but once he becomes accustomed to learning how to play with fewer minutes, he will be fine and will likely become a crucial asset to the Celtics once again.

 

3. Doc Rivers is still experimenting

With all of the depth Rivers was handed by GM Danny Ainge this season, one would be remiss if they just assumed that he would know what to do right from the get-go. Doc may be an outstanding coach, but he cannot see into the future. He has no clue what lineup combinations will work best, so he is still messing around to try and see what his best options are.

A lot of people are wondering why Darko Milicic hasn’t seen the floor yet. Well, ever think it’s because Rivers is trying to get his main guys going first? Like it or not, Milicic is not going to be an integral part of the rotation this year. He may see some time against bigger teams such as the Los Angeles Lakers and the Memphis Grizzlies, but, ordinarily, you are not going to see him getting minutes. So, why should Doc waste time playing him when he still has to integrate other more important parts into the team?

This is going to be a process. Rivers understands that, and you should, too.

 

4. Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce will be fresh for the stretch run

This is probably the single biggest reason to believe that Boston will be all right. Rivers has been very cautious with Garnett and Pierce thus far, limiting their minutes and playing them in stints. This will be incredibly beneficial to the C’s come the end of the regular season and the playoffs, as they will both have fresh legs for those bigger games.

It’s also no secret that K.G. and Pierce have been coasting through regular seasons for quite a while now to conserve themselves for the postseason. Remember last year when Garnett suddenly exploded in the playoffs? Yeah; that was because he was saving himself.

No matter what happens early on in the year, Rivers is going to keep being judicious with Garnett and Pierce’s minutes, and that is a fine strategy that will only help the Celtics come April.

 

5. It’s November

That needs to be said again: it’s November. How often can you truly assess a team this early in the year? Almost never.

There are still five months left in the regular season. Are we really going to allow ourselves to be fooled over an 11-game sample size during the first few weeks?

Boston isn’t about short-term goals; it is about long-term goals. That isn’t to say that Boston “doesn’t care” about losing games in November, but…you know what; actually, I’ll just say it: The Boston Celtics do not care about losing games in November. They care about winning games in June.

As stated previously, this is going to be a drawn-out process. If you thought that the C’s were just going to come out of the gates and blow the doors off of anybody with this many new pieces, then you were kidding yourself.

Remember the Miami Heat during the 2010-11 season? They got off to a very slow start. It wasn’t because they weren’t incredibly talented. It was because they were still feeling each other out. The same thing is happening here.

Once the Celtics find a stabilized rotation and get more floor time with one another, they will be scary. Very scary.

So relax, and talk to me once the playoffs start.

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