Is Jason Terry or Courtney Lee a Better Fit with Boston Celtics Starters?

 Boston  No Responses »
Dec 072012
 

More so than at any point in the last five years, this season the Boston Celtics have struggled to find a reliable rotation—new pieces have entered the organization, and roles have yet to be figured out. If you’re searching for ways to cast blame on the Celtics’ overall dysfunction, look no further than their permeable starting lineup.

What was once set in stone has suddenly turned into a weekly guessing game, with any finished product now miles from being realized.  

Before diving in to discuss whether Jason Terry or Courtney Lee is the better fit to be on the court for the opening tip, let it be said that this question will soon be rendered a moot point.

Based on his incredible impact last season beside Rajon Rondo, Brandon Bass, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, third-year guard Avery Bradley will be inserted into the starting lineup once he’s cleared to return from two offseason shoulder surgeries.

But in the meantime, the Terry or Lee question is an interesting one. Let’s first summarize how each player has individually performed in a Celtics uniform before taking a look at how they’ve played with the starters, and, more importantly, how the starters have played with them.

 

Courtney Lee

Excluding Andrew Bynum from the conversation, a solid argument can be made that Courtney Lee has been the most disappointing offseason acquisition in the NBA.

After scoring 11 points on 5-of-6 shooting in the season opener against Miami, Lee’s next four scoring totals by game went like this: seven, two, four and six.

He was playing hesitant, unsure basketball while the team struggled to a 2-3 record. After scoring six points against the Sixers, Lee was replaced in the starting lineup by Terry for Boston’s next game against Milwaukee. He failed to score.

Lee was the new piece, the sore thumb. It may not have been fair, but at the time, Doc Rivers’ decision to place him on the bench was best for the team.

A lot goes into wins and losses apart from who starts the basketball game, and according to a slew of statistics, when Lee is on the floor beside Rondo, Bass, Pierce and Garnett, the Celtics are very, very good.

They’ve shared the court for just 35 minutes, but their per-48 numbers are above the team’s average in several basic yet significant categories, such as rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.

Also, they’re shooting the lights out.

The unit’s true shooting percentage is 65.7 percent (as a team, Boston’s is 55.4 percent), they score 1.22 points per possession while giving 0.991 and grab a quarter of all the offensive rebounds available (still below league average, but seven percentage points higher than what the Celtics are doing as a team).

On both offense and defense, second-chance points, points off turnover, points in the paint and fast-break points are all higher (or lower) than the team’s average. Overall they haven’t played much together, but looking at the numbers it’s impossible to say Lee doesn’t  fit. 

 

Jason Terry

Right now Terry is in the starting lineup, and he should be. He’s shooting 39.7 percent on three-pointers (his best since 2007), boasting a true shooting percentage of 63.3 percent (a career best) and is getting to the line more than he did last season on about three fewer minutes of action per game.

He was inserted into the starting lineup in Milwaukee on November 10, and it’s no coincidence that the win Boston came away with that night stands as one of the team’s two or three most important of the season. The Celtics needed Terry, and he responded.

But this wasn’t how it was supposed to be, and there’s more than a good chance this won’t be how it ends. Terry is an above-average offensive player, and utilizing a scoring ability such as his off the bench is a weapon most teams wish they had.

Doc Rivers wants to use Terry with his second unit. But he also wants wins, and thanks to his overall consistency, Terry is the safer bet.

The most used five-man unit the Celtics have deployed this season is Rondo, Bass, Pierce, Terry and Garnett. They’re scoring 1.05 points per possession (a top-10 offense on par with the San Antonio Spurs) while giving up .093 points per possession (a defense that would be best in the league by a staggering three points per 100 possessions).

 

Who Should Be In The Starting Lineup Moving Forward?

Either option, honestly, is solid. Both can shoot and both can create off the dribble. So far Terry has played beside the other starters for more than 100 more than Lee.

A discrepancy this large can’t be ignored, but when you factor in defensive intensity with his glowing numbers running amongst the starters, Lee should be given another shot in the starting lineup. 

The clip below encapsulates the type of impact Lee can have to kick off a basketball game. He’s fast, has quick hands and feet (making him a nightmare for opposing players driving at him in isolation) and is more than capable of knocking down a jump shot or finishing at the rim.    

Looking at the big picture, who starts at shooting guard until Avery Bradley gets healthy is not the difference between Boston winning the championship or falling in the first round. But if they want to re-establish themselves as a defense-first organization while remaining a fast-paced offense capable of matching up well against nearly every team in the league, Courtney Lee should not be coming off the bench.

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Boston Celtics Must Overhaul Offensive System to Hide Old Age

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 292012
 

The Celtics are 8-7, puttering right along through the season’s first 15 games. 

There are issues, though, and while there shouldn’t be the same amount of consternation at this point as there was through 15 games and a 6-9 start last season, it seems that the level of worry regarding this team is a bit on the high side.

If you want to get down on the defense, surely you have the ammo to back up your argument. Boston, one of the best defensive teams in the league the past five seasons, is struggling on that end of the floor.

Their defensive efficiency rating and opponent’s points allowed per game are both ranked 22nd out of 30 teams, an unacceptable number. They’ve given up 100 points or more in five of their last seven games and that includes a win over the severely offense-challenged Orlando Magic. Orlando came into their game with the C’s averaging barely over 90 points per game and featured Big Baby Davis as a go-to guy, but still put up 110 points in an OT defeat.

The defense stands to get better, though. The C’s are breaking in a truckload of new faces, and their best defensive player, Avery Bradley, has yet to take the floor this season.

What may bear a closer look, however, is the team’s offense. 

This may sound strange. After all, the Celts are 11th in both points per game and offensive efficiency, the second start marking their highest ranking in that category since the 2008-09 season. And given that they ranked 27th in offensive efficiency last year, their improvement in that regard thus far should be seen as a welcome surprise.

Still, one has to wonder how long this offensive uptick can really last, especially considering that the Celts’ two top options on that end of the floor are the two oldest players on the roster.

Both Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce are seeing their minutes monitored this season, especially Garnett, who is playing less than 30 per game. But in crunch time, when both are on the floor, you can bet that Pierce will still be their first choice and Garnett, particularly if he can get a clean look from mid-range to the perimeter, will be No. 2.

The regular season is a slog, a long bumps-and-bruises-filled march that can test anyone’s resolve, especially players on the other side of the hill like Pierce and Garnett. If the C’s really want to save some parts of their two biggest stars for a potential postseason run, they need to find other ways to operate effectively on offense.

The question is, how will they do it? There isn’t really anyone else on the roster who fits the role of being a focal point on offense. Rajon Rondo could probably handle it. But why ask one of the game’s best distributors/facilitators to step out of his comfort zone and into a position that could affect his overall game?

Maybe they can lean more heavily on Jason Terry, although he’s not a player who can create for himself at this stage. Or, once Bradley comes back and the backcourt becomes more crowded, perhaps a trade can be swung for a big man who can score, like Phoenix center Marcin Gortat.

Either way, given the age of both Pierce and Garnett, and regardless of the offensive success the C’s have had thus far, reducing both players’ responsibilities as well as their minutes should be a priority.

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Boston Celtics Placing Too Much Hope on Avery Bradley’s Return to Cure All

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 262012
 

The Boston Celtics have gotten off to a bumpy 8-6 start, and in most of the eight wins they have accumulated, it has not been smooth sailing. As a matter of fact, in six of the Celtics’ eight wins, they have won by six points or fewer.

Boston has uncharacteristically been allowing over 100 points per game thus far, and for a team that prides itself on defense, that is not going to sit well in the locker room. Clearly, there are still some adjustments that need to be made, and one of those adjustments is getting Avery Bradley back from shoulder surgery.

Still, as key as Bradley is to the C’s, he is not going to fix everything by himself.

Will Bradley help? Sure. We all saw his incredible perimeter defense on display last season, particularly against Dwyane Wade. He has lightning quick feet and is also very strong for his size, allowing him to competently match up against big, athletic guards (like Wade).

But he will not solve everything, and one has to hope that these issues will be worked on and improved upon by the time Bradley returns in what will likely be around January.

One of the Celtics’ biggest problems defensively has been their lack of shot-blockers. Kevin Garnett, the team’s best rim protector, is averaging only 0.8 swats per game. That is tied for the team lead with Brandon Bass. Sorry, but that is just not cutting it. As a team, Boston is averaging only 3.1 blocks a contest, good for second-to-last in the league.

Bradley has nothing to do with the intimidation factor in the paint. That’s all on Garnett and the boys down low, so they need to do a better job of altering shots. The lack of shot-blocking has a lot to do with the fact that the Celtics are currently 27th in the NBA in opponents’ field goal percentage, an area where they ranked first last year.

Another problem Boston has been having has been on the glass as the men in green rank last in the league in rebounds per game. The 6’2″ Bradley isn’t going to do much to change that. The rebounding issue may be a bit overblown, as the Miami Heat and the New York Knicks, two of the best teams in the league, rank 27th and 28th in that statistic, respectively, but it would still be nice to get better there.

Finally, the C’s are still having some problems developing consistency overall, and that has plenty to do with the fact that guys who are used to seeing big minutes are having their floor time cut drastically due to the enormous amount of depth Doc Rivers has at his disposal. When Bradley returns, that will only be exacerbated.

Now having “too much depth” is a pretty cushy problem to have, but the fact remains that Bradley is going to take playing time away from a guy like Courtney Lee, and Lee has been struggling to find some regularity in his game as is.

Of course, we all want Bradley back, as having him to use as a weapon on both ends of the floor should end up paying dividends. However, it is putting way too much pressure on the kid to expect him to step in and be the savior. The Celtics have been having complications that the 22-year-old just can’t fix. (Would you look at that? It’s Avery’s birthday today!)

All things considered, it is safe to assume that Boston will figure things out by the time Bradley comes back and that Bradley will merely serve as something of a midseason acquisition to bolster what is already a loaded roster.

Get well soon, Avery.

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NBA News: Celtics’ Slow Start Leads to Lineup Changes in Boston

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 112012
 

Doc Rivers’ job is safe, but after a slow start, a few of the starting spots in the Boston Celtics‘ starting lineup are not. 

While the Celtics haven’t looked nearly as bad as the Los Angeles Lakers, a 2-3 start, an opening night lost to the rival Miami Heat didn’t sit well with Rivers. 

Following Friday night’s 106-100 home loss against the Philadelphia 76ers, Doc had a new prescription for his team’s ailing offense (via The Boston Globe). 

After giving rookie Jared Sullinger a chance to grasp the starting power forward spot, Rivers had seen enough. 

The rookie out of Ohio State was averaging just four points and 4.6 rebounds per game as a starter, leaving Rivers no choice but to put veteran Brandon Bass back at the No. 4 spot Saturday night against the Milwaukee Bucks. 

Bass—who like Sullinger is considered an undersized power forward—responded with eight points and seven boards in the Celtics’ 96-92 victory to even the team’s record at 3-3. 

Sullinger wasn’t the only starter who found a new home off the bench Saturday as Doc pulled the plug on Courtney Lee in favor of veteran scorer Jason Terry. 

Lee was expected to be a dynamic offensive threat, but the usually efficient shooter flopped miserably in Boston’s first five games. 

In replacing Lee with Terry, the Celtics got a big boost offensively as the wily 13-year veteran dropped 15 points, including two three-pointers in the win. Going forward, this lineup is probably the best the Celtics can roll out until Avery Bradley gets healthy. 

Lee could form a nice scoring duo with Jeff Green off the bench, but he’s probably stretched out as a starter at this point.

Terry’s ability to play point guard in a pinch and score would make him an ideal player off the bench, however, with Bradley still rehabbing from shoulder surgeries, the Celtics probably need him to simply provide points early on.

Once Bradley returns, Boston can throw out one of the better defending back courts in the game with Rajon Rondo and the defensive-minded Bradley. 

Until that happens, the Celtics need to try and put more offensive firepower on the floor, making Terry and Bass invaluable. 

Although some people aren’t fans of Bass’ shot selection, the big man actually improved a lot on both ends of the floor in his first season in Boston and was one of the more underrated players in Boston’s playoff run this summer.

With a team that already struggles to score at times, it’s best to let Bass knock down jumpers and bang on the glass and let Sullinger grow with the second unit.

Before the season it appeared Boston had acquired some enviable depth, and it appears Rivers will find out just how deep his team is just six games into the season. 

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Boston Celtics Need Better Play from Shooting Guards for Sustained Success

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 062012
 

The Boston Celtics are off to a 1-2 start without the help of their defensive specialist and starting shooting guard Avery Bradley. The Celtics have not looked great in their first two games, especially at the shooting guard position currently being filled by Courtney Lee and Jason Terry. Both players have greatly underperformed these first three games and neither has shown any real consistency.

Courtney Lee was pegged as the starting shooting guard after being acquired from the Houston Rockets in the offseason; however, he has yet to show that he can fill the void left by Bradley’s injury. Lee has averaged only 7.3 points per game on a solid 50 percent shooting. He has also only hit on 25 percent of three-point shots while only adding one assist and 1.7 rebounds per game. 

He did play fairly well in the game against the Miami Heat offensively. Nevertheless, he has yet to have a great defensive game, which is a far cry from the suffocating style of play that Avery Bradley provided the team in the second half of last season. In addition, Lee has only posted a 7.55 player efficiency rating, which is well under the 15.0 average set at the beginning of the year and equates to a player that is likely to be buried on the bench. 

Former Sixth Man of the Year Jason Terry has not fared much better, failing to provide any real spark off the bench. He has only averaged 8.7 points per game on 38.1 percent shooting along with 28.6 percent from behind the three-point line. The Celtics were hoping Terry could back up Rondo at the point guard position, but he has only averaged two assists while turning the ball over 2.3 times per game. 

Terry has played fairly well on defense through three games, but he was supposed to be the man that would help replace the performance of Ray Allen. Through four games, Allen has provided the Miami Heat with 15.7 points per game on 62.5 percent shooting along with shooting 56.3 percent on three-pointers, while providing the team with three rebounds, two assists and only one turnover a game. 

Although Allen decided to leave on his own, Terry and Lee are going to have to show great amounts of improvement in the few months leading up to the return of Avery Bradley to make the Celtics secure at shooting guard. During the preseason there was much debate about whether Bradley would be able to reclaim the starting spot from Lee once he returned, but at the level he is currently playing Doc will be begging to have Bradley back. 

Now the season is young and both guards have only been with the team for three regular-season games, but there is no doubt that the performance at the shooting guard position is severely lacking right now. Hopefully Terry and Lee will be able to figure out their roles with the Celtics soon and begin to play like the talented players Boston fans expected to see. The success of the team in the long run may end up relying on the production that these two players will provide off the bench, and they have yet to show that they are up to the challenge.

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Jason Terry’s Irrational Confidence Will Get Boston Celtics Spinning Their Tires

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 052012
 

The Boston Celtics have started off on a cold streak in this young NBA season, but just because the season started a week ago doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be concerned about what’s going on with this team.

What is going to concern Celtics fans the most, right off the bat, is the lackluster defense the team has put together thus far. They’re giving up nearly 102 points per game, despite playing at a very pedestrian pace.

Part of the problem is that they were forced to meet up with the Miami Heat in their first game, a contest in which they gave up 120 points. From there they held Milwaukee to 99 points and then the Wizards to a measly 86 points. There may be a hollow victory in the Wizards game, inasmuch as it was the Wizards they blanketed—but a victory is a victory.

The point is not that they got their defense going against a bad team, just that they got their defense going.

With a guy like Kevin Garnett in the middle, and Rajon Rondo and Courtney Lee (and eventually Avery Bradley) on the perimeter, that should work itself out.

A glaring problem for the Celtics offensively, however, has been the on-and-off start from Jason Terry, something that is a little bit disappointing.

Now, Terry put up a nice game offensively against Milwaukee, making two threes and ending the game with two assists to go with his 10 points, but he sandwiched that game in between two stinkers on the offensive end.

Against Miami, Terry made just two of his seven shots from the field to go along with a goose egg out of three from long range. Then he pulled a 2-for-8 shooting day out of his hat against Washington, making neither of his three-point shots.

Something that has been obvious about Terry for the majority of his career is that he’s not afraid to take shots, even if he’s been missing them. The concern for me is that doing that too often, too early for a team that isn’t exactly running and gunning will be dangerous.

Terry has made a career of ignoring defeat and only concentrating on the next victory, and honestly that’s the ideal mentality for a basketball player. The only problem is that he’s operating with a team that has little room for error. He’s got the confidence enough to take big shots at the end of the game, but for a streak shooter like Terry, that confidence can prove to be irrational in retrospect.

Boston needs to keep their record as good as possible until they’re back to full strength when Avery Bradley returns—which looks like it will be sometime in late December according to ESPN—otherwise they could fall into unfavorable playoff positioning.

If they want to play as many home games as possible, they’ll need to secure themselves a top-four spot—something that’s going to be most difficult for the Celtics, considering they are in what looks to be the toughest division in the Eastern Conference. It will be even better if they end up with the second or third seed, that way they can avoid a series against Miami until the conference finals.

Terry himself has lamented the poor start of Boston’s bench—a unit that doesn’t score or rebound much and that doesn’t defend well—saying to WEEI.com’s Mike Petraglia, ”We’re not even close to where we want to be.”

On his own performance he said, “I’m going to score. I’m going to figure it out. Believe me when I tell you, I’m going to continue to shoot the ball and I’m going to take advantage of every opportunity.”

That’s a great mindset to have when you’re down, but there is a point where he’s trying to do too much.

We’re not to that point yet, but if Terry does go colder than a cast-iron toilet on the shady side of an iceberg, it might be an opportunity to let him chill out and see what Leandro Barbosa can do in his stead.

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How Avery Bradley’s Injury Puts Pressure on Jason Terry to Deliver

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 052012
 

Jason Terry came to the Boston Celtics with an excellent resume and a solid pedigree. Because of that, expectations were reasonably high from the start. Due to Avery Bradley being at least six weeks away from his return, those expectations have ratcheted up and have become pressure to deliver.

There are two major reasons why teams love playoff-tested veterans like Terry. First, they can trust that he’ll be focused and at his best during clutch situations. Second, he has a proven track record as a starter and can fill in with big minutes when injuries become a problem.

Over Terry’s career, he’s started 626 of 1,025 games. However, even when he became the sixth man extraordinaire that he is today, he played over 30 minutes a game. So far for the Celtics in 2012-13, he has played 22.3 minutes per game. Those are sure to rise, especially after the team’s rocky start.

The emergence of Leandro Barbosa as a viable backup at shooting guard makes Terry even more valuable, as he can slide over and take Bradley’s spot as the backup point guard when Rajon Rondo needs a rest.

At the early stages of Terry’s career, he played point guard. In the 2002-03 season with the Atlanta Hawks, he averaged 17.2 points, 7.4 assists and 1.6 steals. He has the skills to play the position, he’s just a bit out of practice. Just like riding a bike, give him a few turns and he’ll get right back into the swing of things.

For the Dallas Mavericks during the 2011-12 season, Terry was at the point guard for six percent of the Mavericks’ total minutes for the season, according to 82games.com. He averaged 22.6 points and 7.3 assists per 48 minutes, which is something the Celtics would jump at in a heartbeat.

The clutch situations would likely see Rondo at the point and Terry at shooting guard. That works out just fine, as during the 2011-12 season, Terry shot 49.3 percent from the field and 94.1 percent from the free-throw line during the fourth quarter or overtime, with less than five minutes left and no team ahead by more than five.

Bradley is unquestionably the heir apparent, as Terry is 35 years old and on the downswing of his career. Bradley is definitely more athletic and explosive, but lacks the experience in big moments and the track record that Terry boasts.

Pressure is nothing new to Terry and he’ll show that he can handle it. He’s a seasoned veteran who is cool, calm and collected in the most difficult situations. The Celtics would rather have Bradley healthy and their entire arsenal at their disposal, but until then, Terry will deliver.

 

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Complete Health Status for Every Boston Celtics Player in 2012-13

 Boston  No Responses »
Nov 032012
 

After last season, the Boston Celtics head coach, Doc Rivers, probably never wants to hear the word “injury” again.

The Celtics’ constant battle with injuries is preventing them from reaching their full potential as a championship-caliber team.

Last season, Jeff Green and Chris Wilcox were sidelined with heart conditions, Avery Bradley missed the second half of the playoffs with a shoulder injury and Jermaine O’Neal missed the second half of the season to get wrist surgery.

How healthy (or not healthy) is the entire Celtics team to start the 2012-13 season?

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7 Reasons This Boston Celtics Team Will Be Better Than Last Year’s

 Boston  No Responses »
Oct 282012
 

We all saw the changes the Boston Celtics made this offseason. The 2012-13 Celtics will look entirely different from the 2011-12 version, with only five players who were on the playoff roster last season returning (and one of them, Avery Bradley, missed the Eastern Conference Finals). The question is, what are the reasons why this Boston team will be better than last year’s?

On paper, one can look at the two rosters and automatically give the edge to this season’s squad. The Celtics just look incredibly balanced and appear to have a platoon of guys who can consistently produce throughout an 82-game grind and then the postseason.

Of course, the game is not played on paper, so you have to come up with logical reasons to explain your position on how this Celtics ballclub will be improved from 2011-12.

Here are seven reasons which do that very thing.

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Breaking Down the Ideal Boston Celtics Fourth-Quarter Lineup

 Boston  No Responses »
Oct 252012
 

In every NBA game, the most valuable 12 minutes take place in the fourth quarter.

We saw in last year’s postseason, as games get close down the stretch, head coaches with the personnel to do so are more inclined to place their five best available players on the court, as opposed to mixing and matching guys who fit traditional positions for the sake of doing so. For this reason, monitoring fourth quarter units for possible playoff teams should be pretty important throughout the regular season. 

The Boston Celtics are a certain lock for the playoffs, and head into this season as a team with enough roster flexibility to invent some seriously creative units in any given game’s final 12 minutes.

They’re capable of either matching up with what an opponent, or setting their own tempo and forcing the issue. 

I recently took a look at Boston’s roster with the hope of figuring out which five-man unit might be the most beneficial in the fourth quarter. Before beginning, it should be understood that different opponents pose different matchup problems.

This article is a general assessment and shouldn’t be blindly applied in every situation. (For example: the Lakers and Heat are both powerhouse title contenders, but the complications they provide are dissimilar.)

Here are a few key points I found relating to how the Celtics should mold their rotation in order to create the most dominant fourth quarter unit. 

 

It begins and ends with three players, obviously: Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett

 Last season this three man unit tied Garnett/Allen/Rondo for a team high 204 fourth quarter minutes together, and in a perfect world they would be on the floor for the final seven or eight minutes of every close game the Celtics play. They’re the team’s three best players, and they each compliment one another other like a perfectly assembled suit.

Rondo dictates the game’s tempo, deciding when to run and which teammate should end each possession; Garnett stations himself in the frontcourt, anchoring Boston’s defense and keeping the opposition honest as one of the most accurate pick and pop finishers in the game; and Pierce, being his Hall of Fame-worthy self, gets to the free-throw line, harasses the other team’s best perimeter scorer, and spaces the floor with a still underrated three-point shot. 

These three are cemented as cornerstones of what the Celtics want to do in every fourth quarter. That being said, it’s time to look a little closer. 

 

Should Garnett play center?

Or should he be designated back down to power forward now that the Celtics have a semi-legitimate rotation at center. I guess this depends on two things: 1) Your thoughts on Darko Milicic, Jason Collins, Chris Wilcox, and Fab Melo (stop laughing) as dependable late game options, and 2) What the opposing big men look like.

Due to in-game match-ups playing a major role in appropriately answering this question, it’s a little difficult to say which is the better option. Personally, I prefer watching Garnett battle it out at the five because it makes Boston an overwhelming handful to deal with for opposing defenses. With Garnett playing center, all five guys on the court are serious offensive weapons; each one needs to be accounted for.

Two of Boston’s three most used fourth quarter units in last year’s playoffs were on the smallish side. A Ray Allen, Mickael Pietrus, Pierce, Rondo and Garnett unit saw the floor for 50 minutes, which led the team. Allen, Pierce, Rondo, Garnett and Brandon Bass came in at number two with 29 minutes, and Allen, Pierce, Rondo, Garnett and Avery Bradley played 25 fourth quarter minutes in only three games. 

Allen has moved on to Miami, and Pietrus is…somewhere, so those two obviously need to be replaced. The most likely options are Jeff Green and…Jason Terry? Courtney Lee? Leandro Barbosa?!? The options are solid, but for the moment I’d rather take a look at someone who’s proven he can handle the role.

 

Please, nobody forget Avery Bradley

Not everyone can play in the fourth, but Allen’s departure created a regular spot to be filled. When healthy, Bradley is my personal favorite option due to what he gives Boston on both ends of the court.

He’s also the only one with relevant data to study. (I use the term “relevant” to mean we already know how Bradley coexists beside Garnett, Rondo and Pierce in the fourth quarter.

There’s no way of positively knowing for sure how Terry or Lee will act alongside those guys in big situations. There’s a more than great chance they’ll be fine, but from a statistical standpoint Bradley is the safe bet heading into the season.)

Last season Bradley shared the court with Rondo in the fourth quarter for 66 minutes. In that time period, Boston was a devastating, fast paced basketball team. These units averaged 95.35 possessions per 48 minutes, which would’ve made them the seventh fastest team in the league.

The Celtics scored 114.7 points per 100 possessions with those two manning the backcourt, which is a ridiculous figure. Defensively, opponents shot 18.9% from behind the three-point line on 27 attempts per 48 minutes, and the Celtics only gave up 84.1 points per 100 possessions. Overall, these numbers mean Boston was a nightmare in the fourth quarter when Rondo and Bradley tag teamed the backcourt. And opponents probably cried because of it.

The stats here are great, but they cover a tiny sample size without taking into account the problems this backcourt could pose in several situations.

For instance, against a Joe Johnson, Deron Williams tandem in Brooklyn, giving Bradley significant time could be an issue. But this is where Boston’s versatility might show its worth. Alongside Rondo, Pierce and Garnett, the Celtics could place Jeff Green on Johnson, and, assuming the Nets have a Kris Humphries, Brook Lopez frontcourt, Jared Sullinger (or Bass) to battle it out up there. 

This is just one super specific situation. Zooming out for a minute, here’s a more general look at how some other pieces fit in the grand scheme of Boston closing out all their opponents. 

 

What to do with Brandon Bass?

 The most common five man unit the Celtics used in the fourth quarter for regular season games was Rondo, Allen, Pierce, Brandon Bass, and Garnett. As has been mentioned, Allen is gone, so he’ll obviously be replaced.

But Bass remains. Nothing against him, because he single-handedly won a critical Game 5 against Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference Semi-Finals last season, but he hardly qualifies as a lock in this spot.

Not with the additions of Green and Sullinger. Looking at it offensively, the Celtics shot 48% in a solid (on the smaller end) sample size of fourth quarter action with Bass, Garnett, and Rondo on the floor last year. 

 

The elite jump shooting from both Bass and Garnett posed predictable problems for defenses, and on the other side of the ball, with these three on the court in the fourth quarter the Celtics held opponents to 24.3% shooting from beyond the arc. Not sure what to make of that number, but at least it’s good! With his spot in the starting lineup in question, it’ll be interesting to see where Bass stands at the end of games too. 

 

An Incoming Fourth Quarter Savant

As we all know, it isn’t who starts the game that best indicates who the top players on a team are. Usually the five players on the court when the final buzzer sounds—when the value of minutes and baskets increases—are the five players who give that team the best chance of winning.

Last season in Dallas, Jason Terry averaged 9.6 minutes per fourth quarter, a team high. He shot 43% from beyond the arc while taking 32.7% of all Dallas’ fourth quarter three-point attempts. Terry is known for coming off the bench, which to the casual fan might read like a Scarlet Letter, but in the grand scheme of winning basketball games it has much less to do with individual ability than serving a player’s ego. And Jason Terry doesn’t need his stroked.

With Terry off the court in the fourth quarter last season, Dallas scored 90.5 points per 100 possessions. When he was on it, they scored 101.5 points per 100 possessions. That type of net difference suggests he was more than crucial to Dallas’ offense, and surrounded by even more talent in Boston it’ll be interesting to see if his ability to impact close games can be amplified. 

Even though the personnel options this Celtics team has right now don’t seem to ever end, this hopefully covers most of everything they will try to do in the fourth quarter this season. In some situations Boston will go large with their aforementioned laundry list of big men, but I don’t see it happening too often in meaningful moments due to their offensive inefficiencies. Also, get ready for some generous helpings of Jeff Green. 

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